Fed Rate Hike December Odds Hit 89%: Waller Floats Half-Point

US Federal Reserve Eccles Building 1937 (fed rate hike december)

Fed rate hike December odds hit 88.8% on November 11, based on CME FedWatch data cited by Investing.com. That leaves the odds with no room for a cut. The other 11.2% is a bet on a half-point hike, after October consumer prices rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast and Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point move “should be considered.”

Goolsbee October CPI ‘Borderline Disturbing’: Fed Rates Next

Austan Goolsbee (Goolsbee October CPI borderline disturbing Fed rates)

Goolsbee October CPI “borderline disturbing” Fed rates warning landed November 11: the 0.4% monthly jump pushed annual inflation to 3.74% (BLS), and the Chicago Fed President’s blunt language came as the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.00% (Yahoo Finance). When a voting Fed official uses words that harsh while yields spike, you pay attention.

Did Mortgage Rates Drop Today? 10-Year Yield Hits 4.98%

A house with a for-sale sign, the kind of purchase mortgage rates decide (did mortgage rates drop today)

The answer to “did mortgage rates drop today” is almost certainly no: the 10-year yield hit 4.98%. Lenders price 30-year fixed loans against that Treasury yield, and it rose 2.45% in a single session on Nov. 10 (Yahoo Finance) after the October CPI report showed prices rising faster than expected. A fixed-rate mortgage you already have doesn’t change at all. If you’re shopping or waiting to refinance, the next inflat…