10 min read
The Ripple Stellar altcoin outlook is grim: XRP has lost 25.73% in 30 days, per CoinGecko data. Stellar (XLM) is down 22.16% over the same stretch, and both fell harder than Bitcoin’s 17.06%, because a dollar at a 19-month high and 5.1% Treasury yields are pulling money out of the riskiest corners of crypto first.
What happens next turns on two numbers: whether XRP holds the $1 mark it is sitting on at $1.018, and whether Bitcoin can get back above $70,000. Your coins are not in danger from the price itself. The real risks are leverage and the exchange you keep them on.
Key takeaways
- $5,000 put into XRP a month ago is worth about $3,714 today, after a 25.73% drop (CoinGecko).
- The same $5,000 in Stellar is down to $3,892, even with XLM up 2.55% on the day (CoinGecko).
- The US dollar index is at 103.24, up 3.28% in three months (Yahoo Finance), which CoinDesk calls a 19-month high.
- Cash earning the 3.88% fed funds rate (New York Fed) pays $194 a year on $5,000. XRP and XLM pay nothing just for holding them.
Why are XRP and Stellar falling this week?
Start with the dollar. The US dollar index (a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies) closed at 103.24 on November 13, according to Yahoo Finance. That’s 1.21% higher in a month and 3.28% higher in three. CoinDesk’s headline the same morning was blunt: Bitcoin dipped below $70,000 as the Dollar Index hit a 19-month high.
When the dollar strengthens on expectations of higher US rates, global investors get paid more to sit in dollar cash and bonds. Speculative assets get sold to fund that move. Altcoins sit at the far end of that risk curve, so they go first and they go hardest.
The leverage flush
The second force is forced selling. CoinDesk reported liquidations above $1.6 billion as Bitcoin hit a 12-week low. A liquidation happens when an exchange closes a borrowed position automatically because the collateral no longer covers the loan. Every one of those closures is a market sell order, and it pushes prices lower, which triggers the next batch.
You can see the damage in the DeFi data too. The lending and borrowing protocols category lost 8.21% of its market value in 24 hours. The payment-solutions category, the corner of crypto XRP and Stellar are built for, fell 7.6% to roughly $1.90 billion. One public company, BTCS, sold ether at a loss to keep a $64 million loan on Aave from being liquidated (CoinDesk).
Bitcoin is draining the room
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market sits at 58.99% (CoinGecko). Total crypto market value fell 6.18% in a day to about $2.35 trillion. When dominance stays this high during a sell-off, money is huddling in the largest coin or leaving crypto altogether. Smaller payment tokens get no bid in that setting.
Ripple Stellar altcoin outlook: what decides the next move
I won’t give you a price target. Nobody knows where XRP trades in December. What I can give you is the checklist that will tell you which way the next few weeks are breaking.
Scenario 1: the dollar cools and Bitcoin reclaims $70,000
If the dollar index stops climbing and Bitcoin gets back above $70,000 (it was $69,205 on CoinGecko when I wrote this), the forced selling stops. In that case the altcoins that fell hardest usually bounce hardest, because short sellers have to buy back. XRP’s 24-hour trading volume of about $2.0 billion means there’s enough liquidity for a sharp move either way.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin keeps sliding toward its 200-week line
Cointelegraph reported Bitcoin returning to its 200-week trend line (the average price of the past roughly four years), with one analyst flagging risk down to $57.7K. CoinDesk’s momentum gauge was turning red with a warning about sub-$60,000 prices. If that plays out, I’d expect XRP and XLM to fall further than Bitcoin again, just as they have over the past 7 days (XRP -14.82%, XLM -4.39%, BTC -9.06%).
The $1 line on XRP
XRP at $1.018 is sitting right on a round number that a lot of retail traders anchor to. Round numbers are psychological, not magic. But a lot of stop-loss orders cluster just under them, so a clean break below $1 can speed up selling for a few sessions.
How the Fed and bond yields reach your XRP wallet
This is the chain that matters, step by step. It explains why a token designed for cross-border payments falls when a US bond yield rises.
Step 1: rates and yields
The effective fed funds rate is 3.88% (New York Fed, November 10). The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.1% on November 12, per Yahoo Finance, after rising 9.95% over three months. When a near risk-free US bond pays 5.1%, every speculative asset has to clear a higher bar. That’s the opportunity cost (what you give up by holding something else) of owning a token with no yield.
Step 2: the dollar and global liquidity
Higher US yields pull capital into dollars. The euro has slipped to $1.11, down 4.08% in three months, and the yen trades near 159.92 per dollar. A strong dollar tightens global liquidity, meaning there’s less cheap money sloshing around looking for a home. Crypto rallies have historically fed on that spare cash. I covered the bond side of this in what 5.1% Treasury yields cost you.
Step 3: risk-off rotation
Risk-off is when investors cut the riskiest holdings first. Stocks felt it mildly: the Nasdaq is down 4.97% in a month and the S&P 500 just 1.64% (Yahoo Finance). Crypto felt it far more, and altcoins most of all. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now net negative for the year by over $1.5 billion, CoinDesk reports. If the institutional on-ramp is leaking, the smaller coins get even less fresh money.
XRP vs Stellar vs Bitcoin: the numbers side by side
Here’s how the two payment coins compare with the majors. All figures are CoinGecko data as of November 13, 2026.
| Coin | Price (USD) | 24h | 7 days | 30 days | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP (XRP) | $1.018 | -1.46% | -14.82% | -25.73% | $2.00B |
| Stellar (XLM) | $0.1478 | +2.55% | -4.39% | -22.16% | $182.7M |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $69,205 | -4.60% | -9.06% | -17.06% | $44.68B |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,956.61 | -2.64% | -12.61% | -21.74% | $14.88B |
| Solana (SOL) | $80.78 | -0.78% | -10.72% | -24.68% | $3.28B |
What the table tells you
XRP has fallen roughly half again as much as Bitcoin over the month. Stellar held up better over the week and even bounced on the day, but its volume is about 11 times smaller than XRP’s. Thin volume cuts both ways. A small wave of buying lifts XLM quickly, and a small wave of selling knocks it down just as fast.
The two tokens share history. Stellar was started by Jed McCaleb, a Ripple co-founder, and both networks aim at moving money across borders cheaply. In a panic, the market trades them as one group. Use cases don’t matter much in the short run when the dollar is ripping higher.
How much has a $5,000 XRP or Stellar position lost?
Percentages hide the pain. Dollars don’t. Here’s the damage on a round $5,000 position bought a month ago, set against what plain cash would have earned.
By the numbers
- At XRP’s 25.73% 30-day drop (CoinGecko, November 13, 2026), $5,000 bought a month ago is now worth about $3,713.50.
- That’s a paper loss of $1,286.50 on the XRP position in one month.
- At Stellar’s 22.16% 30-day drop (CoinGecko, November 13, 2026), the same $5,000 in XLM is worth $3,892.
- At the 3.88% effective fed funds rate (New York Fed, November 10, 2026), $5,000 in a cash account tracking it earns about $194 over a year.
How we calculated: 30-day price changes for XRP and XLM come from CoinGecko data dated November 13, 2026, and the cash yield uses the New York Fed’s effective fed funds rate of 3.88% for November 10, 2026, applied to a $5,000 example amount.
The math on getting back to even is harsher than it looks. A 25.73% loss needs a gain of more than a third just to break even, because the rebound starts from a smaller base. That’s why I’d be careful about averaging down blindly in a market where the dollar is still climbing.
Is my crypto safe on an exchange right now?
The price drop isn’t the threat to your account. Custody is. In the past 24 hours alone, Indian exchange Unocoin kept deposits and withdrawals halted over suspect transfers (Cointelegraph). The US Justice Department also moved to seize $1.2 billion in crypto stolen from Binance in a hack it ties to North Korea (CoinDesk, CNBC).
Exchange risk in a falling market
Stress shows up at weak platforms when prices fall and customers rush to withdraw. Bitcoin firm Nakamoto owes Kraken $165 million, more than its entire market value, CoinDesk reported. That’s a company problem, not a customer one, but it shows how leverage builds up quietly during rallies and surfaces in drawdowns.
Simple steps that lower your risk
- Keep long-term holdings in a wallet you control, not on a trading account.
- Turn off margin and borrowing features you don’t use.
- Ignore anyone in a chat group promising guaranteed returns. Israeli police just arrested five people in a $5 million WhatsApp crypto trading scheme (Cointelegraph).
Does crypto regulation help the XRP and Stellar outlook?
XRP has more regulatory history than almost any token. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, and several US exchanges pulled XRP trading for a time afterward. That episode taught holders that headlines from Washington can move this coin more than any chart pattern.
This week brought two policy signals. President Trump named CFTC and SEC nominees for the first time in a year (CoinDesk). And CFTC Chair Selig told CNBC the crypto industry is opting into the agency’s rules as hopes for legislation fade. Clearer rules from regulators can help payment tokens over time, but they don’t fight a 19-month-high dollar this month. I’d treat policy as a slow tailwind, not a reason the price turns next week.
Why good news isn’t lifting prices
In a liquidity squeeze, money follows rates, not narratives. The DOJ seizure was arguably good news for the industry’s reputation, and Bitcoin still fell 4.6% on the day. Until the macro chain loosens, expect positive headlines to produce short, fading bounces.
Common mistakes altcoin holders make in a risk-off market
I’ve made most of these myself since 2017, so take this as confession as much as advice.
Treating a bounce as a bottom
Stellar rose 2.55% on a day the whole crypto market fell 6.18%. That kind of one-day outperformance feels like a signal. Over the week, though, XLM was still down 4.39% and over the month 22.16%. One green candle inside a downtrend tells you very little.
Using leverage to win it back
The $1.6 billion in liquidations CoinDesk reported came largely from traders who borrowed to bet. Leverage on a coin that moved 14.82% in a week is how a bad month becomes a zero. If you feel the urge to double up with borrowed money, that’s the moment to step away from the screen.
Ignoring what cash pays
In 2021, cash paid almost nothing, so holding a volatile token cost you little in missed interest. Today the 10-year Treasury yields 5.1%. That changes the math for anyone holding altcoins as a parking spot for money they’ll need soon. If you want a read on how frightened the crowd is, our crypto fear and greed index guide shows how to use the gauge without being ruled by it.
What I’m watching next for XRP and Stellar
These are the dates and levels I’ll check before making any move in my own portfolio.
- The dollar index around 103: if it keeps setting new highs, the pressure on altcoins stays on.
- Bitcoin at $70,000: a sustained close back above it would ease the liquidation spiral. Losing the 200-week line opens the downside that Cointelegraph’s analyst flagged.
- XRP at $1: the round number it is clinging to right now.
- Nvidia’s earnings on Nov. 17: a weak report could deepen risk-off across tech and crypto. My preview is in Nvidia earnings without Huang.
- Bitcoin ETF flows: the year-to-date outflow of over $1.5 billion needs to reverse before I’d call the selling done.
For the full story of how Bitcoin broke below $70,000 this week, read the liquidation breakdown. This is not financial advice. Do your own research before you act on any of it.
FAQ
Why is XRP down so much this month?
XRP has lost 25.73% in 30 days (CoinGecko) as a stronger dollar, 5.1% Treasury yields and over $1.6 billion in liquidations pushed investors out of risky assets. Altcoins tend to fall harder than Bitcoin in these phases. XRP’s drop is about half again as large as Bitcoin’s 17.06%.
Is Stellar a better hold than XRP right now?
Stellar has fallen a bit less, 22.16% over the month versus XRP’s 25.73%, and it rose 2.55% on November 13. But its daily volume is about $183 million, roughly 11 times smaller than XRP’s, so it can swing harder on small flows. Neither coin is protected from a broader crypto sell-off.
Will XRP fall below $1?
Nobody can tell you that with any honesty. XRP trades at $1.018, right on top of the $1 mark, and the outcome depends mostly on whether Bitcoin and the dollar stabilize. Watch Bitcoin’s $70,000 level and the dollar index for the earliest clues.
How does the Fed affect XRP and Stellar prices?
Higher expected US rates lift bond yields and the dollar, which pulls money out of assets that pay no yield. The 10-year Treasury is at 5.1% and the fed funds rate at 3.88%. Those returns raise the bar every speculative coin must clear to attract buyers.
Is my XRP safe if I keep it on an exchange?
Price drops don’t destroy your coins, but exchange problems can lock you out. Unocoin has halted withdrawals this week, and the DOJ is pursuing $1.2 billion stolen in a Binance hack. Keeping long-term holdings in a wallet you control lowers that risk.
Should I move my altcoins into cash?
That’s your call, and it depends on when you need the money and how much loss you can stomach. For context, $5,000 at the 3.88% fed funds rate earns about $194 a year with no price risk. Money you’ll need within a year usually belongs somewhere that can’t drop 25% in a month.
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This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; you can lose all of your money.