11 min read
The bitcoin price post midterm elections is $73,559, down 7.97% in a week, per CoinGecko. The November 3 vote didn’t drive the slide. Spot bitcoin ETF outflows running four days straight (CoinDesk) and a 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 5.0% (Yahoo Finance) did. Your coins are only as safe as where you keep them, and the next few weeks come down to ETF flows, bond yields and Strategy’s exit from MSCI indexes at the end of November.
Key takeaways
- A $10,000 bitcoin position lost about $797 in the past week as BTC fell 7.97% to $73,559 (CoinGecko).
- Ether, now $2,049.07 (CoinGecko), dropped 14.97% in seven days, so a $10,000 stake lost about $1,497. That’s roughly $700 more than the same money in bitcoin.
- Cash earning close to the 3.88% fed funds rate (New York Fed, November 9) makes about $388 a year on $10,000, and it can’t fall in price.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.0% (Yahoo Finance, November 11), up 6.7% in three months. That higher hurdle weighs on every risky asset you own.
Why is the bitcoin price falling after the midterm elections?
Look at November 11. The S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6% (Yahoo Finance), helped by CoreWeave, which jumped more than 24% after its third-quarter report, according to CNBC. Bitcoin moved 0.2% lower that day. When stocks bounce and bitcoin doesn’t, the selling is coming from inside crypto.
CoinDesk put it plainly in its headline: bitcoin sits out stock rebound as ETF outflows extend to fourth day. I’d start there, not with the election results.
Spot bitcoin ETF outflows: the selling you don’t see on the chart
A spot bitcoin ETF holds real bitcoin. When investors redeem more shares than they buy, the fund shrinks, and the bitcoin behind those shares ends up being sold or moved out. Four days of net outflows means four days of steady supply hitting the market from people who bought bitcoin through their brokerage account.
That matters because ETF buyers were a big source of demand on the way up. Bitcoin is still up 16.04% over three months on Yahoo Finance data, so plenty of ETF holders have gains to protect, and they’re selling to lock them in.
Hot inflation, and bitcoin barely moved
A second CoinDesk piece noted that bitcoin barely flinched at hot CPI as ETF selling slows. A hot inflation print usually hurts bitcoin, because it pushes back any hope of rate cuts. Shrugging it off could mean the forced sellers are running out. Nobody knows yet whether that’s exhaustion or just a pause. Our October 2026 CPI breakdown covers what the inflation numbers did to yields.
Bitcoin price post midterm elections vs stocks, gold and altcoins
Put the numbers side by side and one thing jumps out: crypto is doing worse than everything else, and the smaller the coin, the bigger the drop.
| Asset | Last | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $73,559 | -0.21% | -7.97% | -9.49% | CoinGecko |
| Ether | $2,049.07 | -0.28% | -14.97% | -15.76% | CoinGecko |
| XRP | $1.049 | -0.56% | -18.91% | -21.12% | CoinGecko |
| Solana | $83.03 | -0.41% | -12.54% | -20.92% | CoinGecko |
| S&P 500 | 7,619.38 | +1.31% | n/a | -2.38% | Yahoo Finance, Nov 11 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,466.19 | +1.6% | n/a | -6.39% | Yahoo Finance, Nov 11 |
| Gold (per ounce) | $4,000 | -0.75% | n/a | -4.24% | Yahoo Finance, Nov 12 |
| US dollar index | 102.86 | +0.62% | n/a | +0.67% | Yahoo Finance, Nov 12 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.0% | +0.3% | n/a | -4.2% | Yahoo Finance, Nov 11 |
The yield row shows the percentage change in the yield itself, not in percentage points. Yahoo Finance has bitcoin down 11.46% over a month against CoinGecko’s 9.49%. The two sources cut their 30-day windows at different times, so don’t read anything into the gap.
The whole crypto market lost 2.56% in 24 hours (CoinGecko). Bitcoin’s share of that is 59.85%. When dominance (bitcoin’s slice of total crypto market value) stays that high during a drop, money is leaving the smaller coins faster than it leaves bitcoin.
How a 5% 10-year yield and a firmer dollar weigh on bitcoin
Bitcoin pays no interest. Each time safe yields go up, the cost of holding something that pays nothing goes up with them. Economists call that opportunity cost, and right now it’s the highest it has been in a while.
Why higher Treasury yields hurt crypto prices
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.0% (Yahoo Finance, November 11), up 6.7% over three months. The effective fed funds rate is 3.88% (New York Fed, November 9). Long-term rates sitting more than a full point above the Fed’s overnight rate points to a large term premium, the extra yield investors want for locking money up for ten years. That usually reflects worry about inflation and government borrowing.
A 5% risk-free return pulls money out of speculative assets. Pension funds, wealth managers and ETF buyers can all get 5% for ten years without any price swings. Bitcoin has to offer a lot more than that to keep them, and this month it hasn’t.
The dollar index at 102.86 squeezes global buyers
The US dollar index is 102.86, up 3.05% in three months (Yahoo Finance). The euro has fallen 3.89% against the dollar over the same stretch, to $1.11. Bitcoin is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes every coin more expensive for buyers in Europe, Japan (159.68 yen per dollar) and elsewhere. A rising dollar also drains global liquidity, meaning the easy money that tends to flow into risk assets first.
Tariffs, inflation and a Fed that can’t cut
Canada’s ambassador warned this week that Trump tariffs are driving up costs and threatening US investment (CNBC). Tariff costs show up in prices, prices show up in CPI, and a hot CPI keeps the Fed from easing. Unemployment is 4.1% (BLS, October 2026), which isn’t weak enough to force rate cuts. That mix is the backdrop for bitcoin through year-end, whoever won which House seat.
Did the 2026 midterm results help or hurt crypto?
On paper the results lean friendly to crypto. Cointelegraph reports that uncalled US House races could send more crypto allies to Congress. In the Senate, Democrat Scott Colom beat Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, according to CNBC.
More crypto allies in Congress, but the count isn’t final
The price didn’t care. Bitcoin fell 7.97% in the week the results were coming in. A friendlier Congress affects laws that take months or years to pass. ETF outflows and a 5% yield affect this week’s order book, and in the short run the order book wins. Nobody knows yet how many of the uncalled seats will go to pro-crypto candidates, and I wouldn’t trade on a seat count either way.
The GENIUS Act doesn’t cover DeFi lending
One policy detail does touch your wallet. CoinDesk’s analysis points out that the GENIUS Act’s guarantees don’t cover DeFi lending. If you lend out stablecoins on a decentralized protocol for yield, the stablecoin law’s protections don’t follow your money there. Lending and borrowing protocols are worth $4.98 billion and gained 5.45% in 24 hours (CoinGecko), so money is still moving into them. Just know what you’re giving up.
What happened to bitcoin after past midterm elections?
In the last two midterm cycles, what happened to bitcoin had little to do with who won.
The November 6, 2018 midterms came in the middle of a bear market. Within about a week, bitcoin started one of the steepest legs of that downturn, set off by a fight over the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, a split in that network’s software. The voting had nothing to do with it.
The November 8, 2022 midterms landed the same week FTX collapsed. Bitcoin’s drop that month came from an exchange failing and customer funds disappearing. That’s the lesson I took from 2022, and it’s personal: watch the plumbing (exchanges, funds, leverage), not the ballots.
This time the plumbing is ETF redemptions and a company’s index exit. Different pipes, same idea.
Is your bitcoin safe after the midterm selloff?
There are two questions here, and people mix them up. Price risk is the 7.97% weekly drop. Custody risk is whether your coins can be lost because of where they sit. You can’t control the first. The second is mostly up to you.
If your bitcoin sits on an exchange, you’re relying on that company. A spot ETF is held by a regulated custodian, but you can’t withdraw actual coins. If you hold your own keys, the risk is losing them. Our guide to hot wallets vs cold wallets walks through the setups.
Why altcoins are falling harder than bitcoin
This is classic risk-off behavior (investors cutting their riskiest holdings first). XRP lost 18.91% in a week, Solana 12.54%, Zcash 23.77% and Ether 14.97% (CoinGecko). Bitcoin lost 7.97%. Altcoins have thinner order books, so the same selling pressure moves their prices more.
By the numbers
- Bitcoin fell 7.97% in seven days (CoinGecko, November 12, 2026), so a $10,000 position lost about $797.
- Ether, now $2,049.07 (CoinGecko, November 12, 2026), fell 14.97% over the same week, so a $10,000 stake lost about $1,497.
- Holding ether instead of bitcoin cost an extra $700 per $10,000 in a single week.
- At the 3.88% effective fed funds rate (New York Fed, November 9, 2026), $10,000 in cash earns about $388 in a year.
How we calculated: 7-day price changes for bitcoin and ether from CoinGecko as of November 12, 2026, and the effective fed funds rate from the New York Fed on November 9, 2026, applied to a $10,000 example amount. Savings rates you actually get will vary.
Biggest risks for bitcoin holders this November
Strategy leaves MSCI indexes at month-end
Cointelegraph reports that MSCI confirmed Strategy’s removal from its indexes at the end of November. Strategy is the listed company built around holding a large bitcoin treasury. Index funds that track MSCI have to sell its shares when it drops out. That selling hits Strategy’s stock, not bitcoin directly. But a weaker share price makes it harder for Strategy to raise the money it uses to buy more bitcoin, and Strategy has been one of the steadiest buyers in the market.
Nvidia and the AI trade can spill over
MarketWatch reported that Nvidia sank 8% after hours on a report that its board may oust CEO Jensen Huang, and Nasdaq futures fell with it. Bitcoin often trades like a high-beta tech stock (one that swings more than the market). The Nasdaq is already down 6.39% in a month. If the AI trade cracks again, crypto rarely gets spared.
The mistakes I’d avoid
Buying altcoins because they “look cheap” after an 18% week is how I lost money in 2018. A coin that fell more usually has fewer buyers, not more value. Leverage is the other trap: a margin position on a coin that moves 12% in a week can be liquidated before you’re even awake to see it.
The quieter mistake is treating election headlines as a trading signal. The results were friendly to crypto, and the price fell anyway.
What decides bitcoin’s next move after the midterms?
No price targets here, just the conditions that would change the picture. CoinDesk has described bitcoin as stuck under $74,000, so that’s the line the market is watching.
If spot ETF outflows stop
The steadiest seller goes away. CoinDesk already reports the selling is slowing. A switch back to inflows would be the clearest sign the post-election flush is over, and it would show up in daily fund flow data before it shows up in the price.
If the 10-year yield stays at 5% or higher
Expect bitcoin to keep lagging. A yield at 5.0% with the dollar index rising 3.05% in three months is a tight-money setup, and tight money has been bad for crypto in every cycle I’ve watched. A drop in yields would ease that pressure on stocks, gold and crypto together.
If Strategy’s index exit triggers more selling
This is the event with a known date: the end of November. If Strategy’s stock falls hard around the removal and the company slows its buying, bitcoin loses a reliable buyer. If the removal passes quietly, one overhang is gone.
FAQ
Did the midterm elections cause bitcoin to drop?
Not directly. Bitcoin fell 7.97% in the week after the November 3 vote, but CoinDesk ties the weakness to four straight days of spot ETF outflows. The 10-year yield at 5.0% adds pressure. The election results themselves were, if anything, friendly to crypto.
Why didn’t bitcoin go up with stocks on November 11?
The stock rally was driven by AI earnings, with CoreWeave up more than 24% (CNBC), and none of that money had to flow into crypto. Meanwhile, ETF redemptions kept adding bitcoin supply. The S&P 500 rose 1.31% while bitcoin slipped about 0.2%.
Is bitcoin still up over the last three months?
Yes. Yahoo Finance data shows bitcoin up 16.04% over three months even after falling 11.46% in the past month. That’s part of why ETF holders are selling: many still have gains to lock in.
What does Strategy’s MSCI removal mean for bitcoin?
Index funds tracking MSCI must sell Strategy shares at the end of November. That hits the stock first. The knock-on risk for bitcoin is that Strategy, a large and steady buyer, may find it harder to raise money for more purchases.
Is cash safer than bitcoin right now?
Cash can’t lose 7.97% in a week, and at a rate near the 3.88% fed funds rate, $10,000 earns about $388 a year. Whether that beats bitcoin over time depends on your timeline and how much volatility you can stomach. Most people are better off holding both in sizes they can live with than going all-in on either.
How do bond yields affect the price of bitcoin?
Higher yields raise the return you give up by holding an asset that pays nothing. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.0%, large investors can earn that with no price risk, which pulls money away from bitcoin. Falling yields tend to do the reverse.
What I’m watching for bitcoin through the end of November
First, daily spot ETF flows. A fifth or sixth day of outflows tells me the selling isn’t done, and a day of inflows tells me it might be. Second, the 10-year yield against that 5.0% line and the dollar index against 102.86. Third, Strategy’s share price heading into its MSCI exit at month-end. Last, the uncalled House races, which matter for 2027 crypto bills but not for this month’s price.
If you want a gauge of the crowd’s mood alongside all this, our crypto fear and greed index explainer shows how to read it without overreacting.
This isn’t financial advice. Do your own research before you put money anywhere.
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Sources cnbc.com · coindesk.com · cointelegraph.com
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; you can lose all of your money.