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The October 2026 CPI report results show U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in one month, per BLS. That headline is rounded. On the seasonally adjusted index the rise was 0.35%, core prices climbed 0.30%, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped back to 4.98% the same day. Your bank deposits aren’t at risk, but cash now earns almost nothing after inflation, and the next Fed move depends on whether core inflation keeps running near 0.3% a month.
Key takeaways
- BLS’s seasonally adjusted CPI-U index rose from 336.298 to 337.476 in October, a 0.35% jump in one month. Core rose 0.30%.
- Prices are up 4.15% since December 2025 on BLS’s unadjusted index, so a $5,000 monthly budget now costs about $5,208.
- Cash earning the 3.88% effective fed funds rate (New York Fed, November 9) beats September’s 3.74% inflation by only about $14 a year on $10,000.
- The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.98% on November 10 (Yahoo Finance). That’s the rate fixed mortgage pricing follows.
October 2026 CPI report results: what BLS actually published
BLS released the numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 (22:30 in Seoul). The all-items CPI-U index came in at 337.511 before seasonal adjustment, up from 336.940 in September. The seasonally adjusted version, which removes normal calendar patterns like holiday discounting, rose to 337.476 from 336.298.
Every percentage in this piece is my own calculation from those BLS index values, and you can check them on the BLS CPI page. CoinDesk’s headline on the release called it a stronger-than-expected 0.4% rise with core up 0.3%, which matches the index math once you round.
Headline vs core CPI in October
Headline CPI covers everything households buy. Core CPI leaves out food and energy because those two swing with weather, wars and harvests. The Fed treats core as the better guide to where inflation is heading.
In October the seasonally adjusted headline index rose 1.178 points, or 0.35%. Core went from 338.896 to 339.900, a 0.30% gain. Keep that up for a year and you end up well above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s why the bond market reacted the way it did.
Why there’s no clean year-over-year rate for October
Most news reports lead with the 12-month inflation rate. This time the BLS series has a blank where October 2025 should be, because data collection was disrupted during the 2025 federal government shutdown. With no October 2025 index, you can’t compute a proper October-to-October rate from these figures.
The latest clean 12-month reading is September: 336.940 against 324.800 a year earlier, which is 3.74%. A second useful yardstick is the change since December 2025. On the unadjusted index prices are up 4.15% in ten months, more than a full year’s worth of inflation at September’s pace.
How does October inflation compare with previous months?
A single month tells you little. This table puts the last six readings side by side, with the monthly changes computed from BLS’s seasonally adjusted indexes.
| Month (2026) | CPI-U index (NSA) | CPI-U index (SA) | Headline m/m (SA) | Core index (SA) | Core m/m (SA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 337.511 | 337.476 | +0.35% | 339.900 | +0.30% |
| September | 336.940 | 336.298 | +0.65% | 338.896 | +0.33% |
| August | 334.980 | 334.131 | +0.40% | 337.765 | +0.29% |
| July | 333.918 | 332.813 | +0.07% | 336.789 | +0.22% |
| June | 333.952 | 332.568 | -0.42% | 336.065 | -0.02% |
| May | 335.123 | 333.979 | +0.47% | 336.121 | +0.21% |
The 2026 pattern: two hot stretches and a summer pause
This year has come in waves. March was the hottest month in the series, with the adjusted index up 0.87%, followed by 0.64% in April. June then fell 0.42% and July barely moved at 0.07%.
The second wave started in August. Headline rose 0.40% that month, 0.65% in September and 0.35% in October. So October is a step down from September, and it’s still the third month in a row at or above 0.35%. I wouldn’t call that cooling.
Core inflation has crept up since spring
Core is the part I’d focus on. It ran near 0.2% in May and July, dipped slightly in June, then rose to 0.29% in August, 0.33% in September and 0.30% in October. Three straight months around 0.3% is what central bankers call sticky inflation: price increases that have spread beyond fuel and food into everyday services and goods.
Over the full year the gap is clear. Since December 2025 the seasonally adjusted headline index is up 3.51%, while core is up 2.44%. Food and energy did most of the damage this year. The worry now is that core is catching up.
What pushed CPI up in October?
The BLS series I have covers headline and core only, so the category split has to be inferred. Headline rose 0.35% and core 0.30%, which means food and energy added a little on top. In September the gap was much wider, 0.65% against 0.33%, so the push from food and energy shrank in October.
Oil explains part of it. WTI crude was $86.77 a barrel on November 11 (Yahoo Finance). That’s down 7.83% over a month but up 4.29% over three months. Energy is also carrying a geopolitical premium right now: CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Bessent was moved to a military base over Iranian threats, and the same coverage mentions the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping lane for oil.
Why the core number matters more than gasoline
Energy shocks move through the economy in steps. First you pay more at the pump. Then trucking, airfares and shipping costs go up. Months later businesses raise prices on goods and services that have nothing to do with oil. Economists call these second-round effects, and they show up in core CPI.
Core at 0.3% for three months suggests some of that has already happened. For a category-by-category view, CNBC published an October inflation breakdown in one chart.
How did markets react to the October CPI report?
The clearest reaction came from bonds. Stocks slipped, and crypto had a worse day than either.
| Market | Level | 1-day move | 1-month move | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.98% | +2.45% | -4.90% | Nov 10 |
| S&P 500 | 7,520.93 | -0.38% | -3.67% | Nov 10 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,065.87 | -0.74% | -8.00% | Nov 10 |
| Dow Jones | 52,231.89 | -0.30% | +0.74% | Nov 10 |
| US dollar index | 102.3 | +0.07% | +0.12% | Nov 11 |
| Gold (per ounce) | $4,063.70 | +0.83% | -2.72% | Nov 11 |
| Bitcoin | $73,719.62 | -2.00% | -9.84% | Nov 11 |
Source: Yahoo Finance. The yield row shows the percentage change in the yield itself, not in percentage points.
Treasury yields jumped back near 5%
The 10-year yield rose 2.45% on the day to 4.98%, which is a big one-day move for Treasuries. CNBC tied the move to two things: the inflation data and comments from Fed Governor Waller that fed rate hike expectations.
Long-term yields reflect where traders expect the Fed’s rate to go, plus a term premium, which is the extra yield investors want for locking money up for ten years when inflation is uncertain. A hot core print pushes up both parts.
Stocks slipped and the dollar barely moved
On November 10 the S&P 500 fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq fell 0.74% and the Dow fell 0.30%. The one-month numbers tell you more. The Nasdaq is down 8.00%, while the Dow is up 0.74% over the same period. Money has been leaving rate-sensitive tech for steadier companies, and CNBC reported that investors are moving into defensive stocks as markets enter a “state of alert.”
The dollar index edged up only 0.07%. In Asia the next morning the KOSPI rose 2.17% and the won strengthened 0.75% to 1,333.77 per dollar, so the CPI print didn’t spill into a wider currency selloff.
Bitcoin and crypto after the CPI print
Crypto had the worst session. Bitcoin fell 2.00% on the day (Yahoo Finance), and our market feed puts total crypto market value at about $2.48 trillion, down 4.11% in 24 hours. Ether dropped 2.54% and is down 19.28% over 30 days.
CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin was breaking with stocks as ETF outflows mount. The mechanism is simple: when real yields rise, holding an asset that pays no interest gets more expensive, and that tends to hurt crypto first in a risk-off market, meaning one where investors cut their riskiest positions.
What does the October CPI mean for Fed interest rates?
Compare two numbers. The effective fed funds rate was 3.88% on November 9 (New York Fed). September’s 12-month inflation rate was 3.74%. The Fed’s policy rate is only about 0.14 points above inflation, so in real terms it isn’t putting much brake on the economy.
Jobs don’t give the Fed a reason to ease either. Unemployment was 4.1% in October (BLS), which isn’t the kind of weakness that makes a central bank worry it’s squeezing too hard. I covered what the futures market was pricing before this release in our piece on Fed rate hike odds and Korean savers.
The case for a rate hike, in plain words
If prices rise about 0.3% a month on the core measure and the Fed’s rate barely beats inflation, then money is effectively cheap. Waller’s comments, as CNBC reported them, moved markets toward pricing a hike. October’s core figure did nothing to argue against that.
What would keep the Fed on hold
Three things would change the picture. Core would need to drop back toward the 0.2% monthly readings of May and July. The 7.83% monthly fall in oil would need to flow through to gasoline and pull headline down. Or unemployment would need to climb from 4.1%.
The last case brings stagflation into play, meaning high inflation and a weakening job market at the same time, the hardest mix for any central bank to handle. Nobody knows yet which way this goes.
What October inflation means for your money
This is where the index numbers become dollars. The CPI basket costs more than it did in December, cash barely keeps up, and borrowing costs follow the 10-year yield.
By the numbers
- BLS’s unadjusted CPI-U index went from 324.054 in December 2025 to 337.511 in October 2026, a rise of about 4.15% in ten months.
- A household basket that cost $5,000 a month in December 2025 costs about $5,208 at October 2026 prices.
- September 2026’s index of 336.940 against 324.800 a year earlier gives 3.74% inflation over 12 months, the latest clean annual reading.
- $10,000 earning the 3.88% effective fed funds rate (New York Fed, November 9, 2026) beats 3.74% inflation by about $14.23 a year, before tax.
How we calculated: CPI-U index values for September 2025, December 2025, September 2026 and October 2026 are BLS figures, not seasonally adjusted; 3.88% is the New York Fed’s effective fed funds rate for November 9, 2026; $5,000 and $10,000 are example amounts.
Savings and cash: the real return is nearly gone
That $14 a year is the best case, because it assumes your account pays the full fed funds rate. Most bank accounts pay less. After income tax on the interest, plenty of savers are already behind. Cash is still the right place for an emergency fund. It just isn’t doing much to grow your wealth.
Loans and mortgages: watch the 10-year, not the Fed
Fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury more than the fed funds rate. At 4.98%, the 10-year is more than a full point above September’s 3.74% inflation. That’s a high real yield, and it keeps new mortgages expensive. If you’re shopping for a fixed-rate loan, this CPI report made it a bit more expensive the same day it came out.
Stocks, ETFs and crypto: who gets hurt first
Higher yields hurt companies whose profits sit far in the future, because those profits are worth less today when rates are higher. That’s why the Nasdaq is down 8.00% in a month while the Dow is slightly up. Bitcoin and ether pay no yield at all, which helps explain the bigger drops. If you’re new to reading these releases, our guide to reading economic indicators walks through how CPI, yields and the fed funds rate connect.
Common mistakes when reading a CPI report
I’ve misread these releases myself, usually by reacting to the headline before checking core. Here are the traps that come up most often with this report:
- Treating 0.4% as the annual inflation rate. It’s one month. The 12-month figure for September was 3.74%.
- Mixing adjusted and unadjusted numbers. The unadjusted index rose only 0.17% from September to October, while the adjusted index rose 0.35%. Seasonal patterns account for the difference.
- Quoting an October year-over-year rate. With no October 2025 index, any such number in circulation was estimated, not taken from the data.
- Calling it Fed relief when oil falls. Cheaper gasoline lowers headline CPI, but the Fed is watching core, and core ran 0.30% this month.
- Trading the first hour. On November 10 the S&P 500 moved 0.38%. A one-day move that size tells you little about the next year.
Before the release I set out what to expect from the October CPI report. The core figure was the part I said to watch, and it came in at the uncomfortable end.
FAQ
What was the CPI for October 2026?
BLS’s seasonally adjusted CPI-U index rose 0.35% in October 2026 to 337.476, which BLS rounds to 0.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.30% to 339.900. The unadjusted index was 337.511.
What is the year-over-year inflation rate for October 2026?
A standard October-to-October rate can’t be computed from the BLS data, because no October 2025 index was published. The latest 12-month rate is September 2026’s 3.74%. Since December 2025, unadjusted prices are up 4.15%.
Why did the 10-year Treasury yield rise after the CPI report?
Core inflation running at 0.3% a month raises the odds that the Fed hikes rather than holds. CNBC linked the move to 4.98% to the CPI data and Governor Waller’s comments. Investors also want more term premium when inflation looks sticky.
Will the Fed raise rates after the October CPI?
Nobody can say for sure. The effective fed funds rate of 3.88% sits only about 0.14 points above September’s 3.74% inflation, and unemployment is 4.1%, which together make a hike easier to justify. A few cooler core readings would weaken that case.
Is my money in the bank safe with inflation this high?
Inflation doesn’t put insured bank deposits at risk. What it eats is purchasing power. On $10,000 earning 3.88%, you’re ahead of 3.74% inflation by only about $14 a year before tax, and most accounts pay less than that.
How does CPI affect Bitcoin and crypto?
A hot CPI print pushes yields up, and higher yields make assets that pay no income less attractive. On the day after the release Bitcoin fell 2.00% and total crypto market value dropped 4.11%. CoinDesk also pointed to Bitcoin ETF outflows.
What I’m watching after the October 2026 CPI
First, core CPI on a monthly basis. Three readings around 0.3% make a trend, and I want to see whether the next one drops back toward 0.2%. BLS posts the next release date on its CPI release schedule.
Second, the 10-year yield around 5%. It closed at 4.98%, and a sustained move above 5% would add pressure to mortgages and growth stocks. Third, WTI at $86.77 and the Iran headlines, because oil is the quickest way headline CPI could cool or flare up again.
On my own money, I’m checking that my cash actually earns more than 3.74% and leaving long-term positions alone. This is not financial advice, so do your own research before acting on any of it.
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Sources bls.gov · coindesk.com · cnbc.com
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; you can lose all of your money.