12 min read
Nvidia earnings arrive November 17 with a $108 billion revenue guide and no Jensen Huang on stage. The stock closed at $200.13 on November 4 and opened at $150.99 on November 12, the day Huang resigned, so this one report now has to test the business and the new leadership together. Your money isn’t about to vanish, but if you own Nvidia directly or through a Nasdaq or S&P 500 fund, the next week carries real swing risk, and you should know exactly where the lines are.
Key takeaways
- NVDA opened at $150.99 on November 12, 13.09% below the prior close (Yahoo Finance). A $10,000 position from the November 11 close lost about $1,309 at the open.
- Nvidia’s own guide is $108 billion of revenue, plus or minus 2%. Anything under about $105.8 billion falls below the company’s own range (Nvidia outlook, via IG and Zacks).
- If Nvidia beats its midpoint by 4.6% again, the low end of one preview’s four-quarter pattern, revenue lands near $112.97 billion. The Zacks consensus is $108.99 billion.
- On $108 billion of revenue, each half point of gross margin is worth about $540 million of gross profit (Starman calculation from Nvidia’s 74.0% guide).
When are Nvidia earnings? Date, time and the official guide
Nvidia’s CEO transition press release, filed with the SEC on November 12, says the third-quarter fiscal 2027 report goes ahead as scheduled.
Results come out at about 1:20 p.m. Pacific time on Tuesday, November 17, and the earnings call starts at 2 p.m. PT. In New York that’s 4:20 p.m. and 5 p.m., after the closing bell, so the regular-session reaction lands on Wednesday morning.
Nvidia earnings time in Korea and Asia
In Seoul the numbers hit at 6:20 a.m. KST on Wednesday, November 18, and the call starts at 7 a.m. KST. Korean investors holding NVDA through a local brokerage will have the release and most of the call before the KOSPI opens. That index had already dropped 15.8% in a month as of November 11 (Yahoo Finance), so local nerves are raw going in.
What Nvidia’s $108 billion guidance actually says
Nvidia gave this outlook alongside its previous results: revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, which works out to roughly $105.8 billion to $110.2 billion. It also guided gross margin to 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points (a basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 50 of them make half a point). Last quarter’s revenue was $96.2 billion, according to the earnings previews.
Two details get lost in the headlines. First, the outlook excludes China data-center compute revenue, as IG, Zacks and BloFin all point out. Second, Nvidia has not changed or withdrawn that outlook since the resignation. Officially, the company is still standing behind the number.
Why did Nvidia stock fall from $200 to the $150s?
The slide came in two steps. On November 8 the board opened an investigation and Huang apologized. By the November 11 close the stock was at $173.73, down from $200.13 a week earlier (Yahoo Finance daily data). Then on November 12 Huang resigned as CEO, president and director, effective immediately, and the shares opened at $150.99, a 13.09% gap down from the prior close.
That’s what key-person risk looks like when it shows up: the market reprices a company when the one person most identified with its strategy leaves overnight. I covered the resignation itself in our piece on Huang’s exit and the 13% open. This preview is about what comes next.
Who runs Nvidia now?
According to the 8-K, CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO and stays CFO. Harvey C. Jones became Nvidia’s first-ever board chair. So the person who has delivered the financial guidance on past calls now also owns the strategy question.
Our profile of Kress’s new role has more on her background. No source I’ve seen says who else will speak on the call, so I won’t guess.
Why the November 18 House briefing date matters
CNBC reported that three House Republican committee chairs had asked Huang to attend a closed-door briefing on November 18, the day after earnings, citing “significant national security concerns.” Nothing public yet says how that request changes after the resignation. Either way, the earnings call and that requested briefing land about 24 hours apart, and that timing will shape how China questions get asked and answered.
What Wall Street expects from Nvidia Q3 earnings
Keep two kinds of numbers apart: what Nvidia itself said, and what analysts estimate. Consensus is only the average of outside forecasts. The company never promised it. Here they are side by side.
| Measure | Number | Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue guide (midpoint) | $108 billion | Company | Nvidia outlook |
| Revenue guide range | ~$105.8B to $110.2B | Company | Nvidia outlook (plus or minus 2%) |
| Gross margin guide | 74.0%, plus or minus 0.5 pt | Company | Nvidia outlook |
| Prior quarter revenue (Q2 FY27) | $96.2 billion | Reported result | Earnings previews |
| Consensus revenue | $108.99 billion | Estimate | Zacks |
| Consensus EPS | $2.49 | Estimate | Zacks |
| Revenue estimate / EPS whisper | ~$109 billion / $2.60 | Estimate | Earnings Whispers |
| One bullish preview | ~$113 billion revenue | Estimate | Seeking Alpha preview |
The Zacks consensus sits barely above the guide midpoint. The “whisper” number (the figure traders quietly expect, usually above published consensus) is $2.60 per share, 11 cents above the $2.49 consensus. When the whisper runs above consensus, merely matching consensus can read as a disappointment.
Does Nvidia usually beat its own guidance?
One preview calculated that Nvidia beat the midpoint of its own revenue guidance in each of the last four reports, by roughly 4.6% to 5.7%. Apply the low end of that to $108 billion and you get about $112.97 billion, which is close to the roughly $113 billion one Seeking Alpha preview expects.
I’d be careful leaning on that pattern. Four quarters is a short streak, and none of those reports came days after the CEO left. Past results don’t guarantee a repeat. They do tell you the real bar: much of the market already treats $108 billion as a floor rather than a target.
How 5.1% Treasury yields raise the bar for Nvidia earnings
Nvidia isn’t reporting into a calm market. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.1% on November 12 (Yahoo Finance), and the effective fed funds rate was 3.88% on November 10 (New York Fed). The Nasdaq Composite is down 4.97% over the past month, against a 1.64% slip for the S&P 500. Money has been leaving the growth-heavy end of the market first.
Why higher bond yields hit growth stocks hardest
A stock price is roughly what investors will pay today for profits that arrive later. When a risk-free Treasury pays 5.1%, profits years out are worth less in today’s money. Analysts call this multiple compression: investors pay fewer dollars for each dollar of earnings.
Growth stocks feel it most, because so much of their value sits in the future. A good quarter can still produce a falling stock if yields keep climbing.
The dollar matters too. The US dollar index stood at 103.19 on November 12, up 3.18% over three months (Yahoo Finance). Nvidia reports in dollars, but a stronger dollar makes US chips pricier for overseas buyers and usually goes with tighter global liquidity.
With unemployment at 4.1% in October (BLS), the economy isn’t breaking. Money just costs more than it used to, which is a different problem.
The four questions that will move NVDA after the report
Revenue is the headline, but I think the stock reaction will come from these four places.
1. Leadership: does Kress keep or change the outlook?
The guide for the fourth quarter is the number that matters most. If Kress repeats the confident tone of past guidance, that tells you the business didn’t wobble when the CEO left. A cautious outlook would raise harder questions. Investors also want anything new on the board’s investigation or a permanent CEO search, and the sources say nothing about timing on either.
2. China: what sits outside the $108 billion
Because the outlook excludes China data-center compute revenue, any China sales would add to the guide, and zero China sales doesn’t count as a miss. Watch the wording instead. With the requested House briefing citing national security concerns one day later, every China answer on the call will be read twice.
3. The roughly $279 billion in supply commitments
Previews from Seeking Alpha and CryptoBriefing flag about $279 billion of supply and purchase commitments as a central question. That’s analysts’ framing, but the logic is simple.
These are promises to pay suppliers for chips, memory and capacity. If demand holds, they guarantee Nvidia can ship. If demand cools, they become a cost Nvidia owes anyway. For scale, that figure is more than two and a half times the $108 billion quarter Nvidia guided.
4. Gross margin versus 74.0%
Gross margin is the share of each sales dollar left after the cost of making the product. At 74.0%, Nvidia keeps $74 of every $100. The guide allows 50 basis points either way, and on $108 billion that half point is about $540 million of gross profit. A margin at the bottom of the range would suggest either pricing pressure or rising costs, and the market tends to punish that faster than a small revenue shortfall.
By the numbers
- A $10,000 NVDA position at the November 11 close ($173.73, Yahoo Finance) lost about $1,309 of value at the November 12 open, when shares opened 13.09% lower.
- 100 shares were worth $4,914 less at the November 12 open ($150.99) than at the November 4 close ($200.13).
- If Nvidia beats its $108 billion guide midpoint (Q3 fiscal 2027 outlook) by 4.6%, the low end of one preview’s four-quarter beat range, revenue comes in near $112.97 billion.
- A 50-basis-point swing in gross margin (Nvidia’s Q3 fiscal 2027 guide range) on $108 billion of revenue moves gross profit by $0.54 billion, about $540 million.
How we calculated: NVDA prices are Yahoo Finance daily data for November 4, 11 and 12, 2026; the $108 billion revenue and 74.0% plus or minus 50 basis point margin guide are Nvidia’s Q3 fiscal 2027 outlook; the 4.6% beat is the low end of one preview’s four-quarter calculation.
What Nvidia earnings mean for your ETFs, 401(k) and crypto
Plenty of people who never bought a single Nvidia share own it anyway. It’s one of the largest companies in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, so cap-weighted index funds hold a big slice of it. If you want the mechanics of that, our explainer on how an S&P 500 index fund works walks through it.
Index funds and retirement accounts
A sharp move in Nvidia shows up in your fund’s daily number, but the fund also holds hundreds of other companies, so it doesn’t feel like owning the stock outright. The 1-month gap between the Nasdaq (down 4.97%) and the Dow (up 1.31%) shows how much tech concentration has mattered lately. If your 401(k) leans on a Nasdaq-100 fund, your ride through November 18 will be bumpier than a broad-market fund holder’s.
Crypto is trading the same risk-off mood
Crypto is already in risk-off mode, meaning investors are dumping whatever looks speculative. Bitcoin traded at $71,421, down 3.92% in 24 hours and 14.21% over 30 days, and total crypto market value fell 5.59% in a day to about $2.42 trillion, based on the market data we track. I’m not claiming Nvidia drives Bitcoin. But the same higher-yield, lower-liquidity backdrop is pressing on both, so a rough Nvidia night can add to the selling across risky assets.
Common mistakes investors make around a big earnings report
I’ve made a couple of these myself, mostly in my early years, and they were expensive lessons.
The first is reacting to the first after-hours print. Revenue hits the wire at 1:20 p.m. PT, but the outlook and margin detail often come out on the call 40 minutes later. Stocks regularly reverse direction between the release and the end of the call.
Another is mixing up guidance and consensus. If revenue comes in at $109 billion, headlines might say “beat” (above the $108 billion guide) or “in line” (versus $108.99 billion at Zacks). Both are true. What matters is how far the number sits from the roughly $113 billion that the bullish previews expect.
Then there’s buying options right before the report. Option prices inflate ahead of earnings because traders expect a big move. After the news, that premium collapses, a drop traders call volatility crush, and you can be right on direction and still lose money.
The last mistake is treating the scandal as already priced in or as permanently damaging. Nobody knows yet how the investigation ends or who becomes permanent CEO. Those questions stay open after Tuesday whatever the numbers say.
Nvidia earnings scenarios: beat, in line or miss
I won’t predict the stock’s move. I can tell you which revenue levels change what the report means, because Nvidia’s own range defines them.
Revenue above $110.2 billion
That clears the top of the company’s range and puts Nvidia back on the pattern that one preview found across four straight reports. The question then shifts to the next-quarter guide and margin. A big beat paired with a soft outlook has hurt plenty of stocks before.
Revenue between $105.8 billion and $110.2 billion
Technically, Nvidia delivered what it promised. But a result near $108 billion breaks the habit of 4.6% to 5.7% beats, and the market may read the gap as a slowdown. That’s where Kress’s tone carries the most weight.
Revenue below $105.8 billion
That would be a miss against Nvidia’s own range, in the first quarter after the CEO’s exit. Nothing in the sources points to this outcome, and Nvidia has not changed its outlook, but this is the scenario holders should have thought through before Tuesday rather than during it.
FAQ
When does Nvidia report Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings?
Tuesday, November 17, 2026. Results come at about 1:20 p.m. and the call at 2 p.m., both Pacific time. In Korea that’s 6:20 a.m. and 7 a.m. on November 18, Korea time. Nvidia confirmed the schedule in its November 12 SEC filing.
What is Nvidia’s revenue guidance for this quarter?
$108 billion, plus or minus 2%, which is about $105.8 billion to $110.2 billion. Gross margin is guided at 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. The outlook excludes China data-center compute revenue.
What EPS are analysts expecting from Nvidia?
Zacks consensus is $2.49 per share, on revenue of $108.99 billion. Earnings Whispers puts the whisper number at $2.60. These are outside estimates, not company figures.
Who is running Nvidia after Jensen Huang resigned?
CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO and remains CFO. Harvey C. Jones is the company’s first-ever board chair. Huang resigned as CEO, president and director, effective immediately, on November 12, 2026.
Does Nvidia’s guidance include China?
No. The outlook excludes China data-center compute revenue, according to the previews from IG, Zacks and BloFin. So any China sales would add to the guide rather than count against it.
Will Nvidia earnings affect my S&P 500 index fund?
Yes, to a degree. Nvidia is one of the largest holdings in cap-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq funds, so a big move in the stock moves those funds. The effect is diluted by hundreds of other holdings, and it’s stronger in Nasdaq-heavy funds than broad-market ones.
What I’d watch between now and the November 18 briefing
My order of attention on Tuesday: the revenue figure against $110.2 billion, gross margin against 74.0%, then the fourth-quarter outlook, then anything Kress says about the investigation, leadership or the $279 billion in commitments. The next morning, I’d watch whether the requested House briefing on November 18 produces any news on China, and whether the 10-year yield holds near 5.1%. A strong report can still lose to rising yields.
For more context on the leadership change, the IG preview frames the report as a test of whether AI growth can outweigh the Huang scandal, and BloFin’s preview lays out the guidance details.
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before you make any move with your money.
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Sources sec.gov · tradingview.com · cryptobriefing.com · ig.com · blofin.com
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; you can lose all of your money.