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The October PPI report put wholesale inflation at 6.5% a year, the highest since November 2022. The month itself came in a little cooler than forecast: producer prices rose 0.3% against a 0.4% consensus in the BLS release at 8:30 a.m. ET (22:30 KST) on Friday. Energy did it: final demand energy slipped 0.1% after a 10.0% jump in September, and diesel fell 7.9%. That small miss doesn’t take a December 9 Fed hike off the table, and nothing in the report touches bank deposits. Borrowers feel it, though: CNBC had the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.14% shortly after the data came out.
Key takeaways
- Wholesale prices rose 6.5% in the 12 months to October, the biggest jump since November 2022 (BLS).
- Goods are where it bites: final demand goods are up 10.2% on the year and energy 37.0% (BLS).
- More cost is still on its way to shelves: processed intermediate goods are up 14.6% over 12 months (BLS).
- Bitcoin fell about 3% to $69,231.05 early Friday, its first drop below $70,000 since August (CNBC).
October PPI report: why 0.3% for the month still means 6.5% for the year
Both numbers are right, but they measure different things. The 0.3% is the seasonally adjusted change from September to October. The 6.5% compares October 2026 with October 2025 on an unadjusted basis, so every hot month in between is still inside it.
The recent months ran hot. BLS now shows final demand up 0.4% in August and 1.4% in September, after it revised September up from the 1.3% it first reported. The bureau also revised June through September for late reports and corrections. A cooler October on top of that run couldn’t pull the annual rate down. It pushed it from 6.3% in September to 6.5%.
Why was October’s PPI cooler than expected?
Energy took a breather. Final demand energy edged down 0.1% in October after jumping 10.0% in September, and diesel fuel fell 7.9% on the month. CNN reported that fuel prices, which the Iran war and an energy supply shock had pushed up, rose more slowly in October than in September. CNN also said the ripple effects kept wholesale inflation elevated.
The forecasts were close. The Dow Jones survey cited by CNBC expected 0.4% for the month, and TipRanks, FXStreet and Investing.com Korea expected 6.6% for the year. The actual numbers came in a tenth below on both.
Why is annual wholesale inflation the highest since 2022?
Goods are driving it. Final demand goods rose 0.5% in October after a 2.5% jump in September and are up 10.2% from a year earlier. Energy on its own is up 37.0% over 12 months. Services are up 5.0%. Food is the quiet corner at 1.7% for the year, even after a 1.3% rise in October.
My read: the energy shock started it, but it has spread beyond fuel. Goods excluding food and energy still rose 0.5% in a single month.
Which core PPI number should you use, 0.3% or 0.5%?
This catches people every month, and it matters more today. There are two “core” measures, and outlets disagree on which one to quote.
The core measure BLS features strips out foods, energy and trade services. Trade services are the margins wholesalers and retailers earn on top of their costs. That measure rose 0.5% in October, the same as in September, and is up 4.9% over 12 months.
The version CNBC and Investing.com call core strips out only foods and energy. It rose 0.3%, down from 0.8% in September, and is up 5.0% on the year. CNBC said that was in line with expectations.
The gap between the two is margins. Trade margins fell 0.2% in October, which made the narrower measure look softer. Services overall rose 0.2%, their fifth straight monthly increase. Within services, transportation and warehousing rose 2.0% and truck freight 3.9%. Freight costs tend to reach store shelves later.
| PPI measure (BLS) | October m/m | September m/m | 12 months to October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand (headline) | +0.3% | +1.4% (revised) | +6.5% |
| Forecast for headline | +0.4% | n/a | +6.6% |
| Less foods, energy, trade services (BLS core) | +0.5% | +0.5% | +4.9% |
| Less foods and energy (CNBC core) | +0.3% | +0.8% | +5.0% |
| Goods | +0.5% | +2.5% | +10.2% |
| Energy | -0.1% | +10.0% | +37.0% |
| Foods | +1.3% | n/a | +1.7% |
| Services | +0.2% | n/a | +5.0% |
| Processed intermediate goods | +0.4% | n/a | +14.6% |
One correction if you read CNBC’s write-up: it said goods less foods and energy “fell 0.1%.” BLS Table 1 shows that category up 0.5%. Energy was the category that slipped 0.1%. I’m going with BLS.
When was wholesale inflation last this high?
November 2022 was the last time the 12-month PPI change was bigger than October’s 6.5%, according to BLS, CNBC and CNN. The Fed was in the middle of an aggressive hiking cycle then, which is why traders keep making that comparison now.
The PPI matters more than usual this month because of a gap in the CPI. BLS released October CPI on November 10, with prices up 0.4% and core up 0.3%, each a tenth above forecasts. But the CPI release had no official 12-month all-items change, because BLS never collected October 2025 survey data during a lapse in appropriations. Of the two reports, the PPI’s 6.5% is the clearer official year-over-year figure.
What’s still in the pipeline? Intermediate goods are up 14.6%
Final demand covers what’s sold to end users. Intermediate demand tracks the earlier stages: the parts, materials and services businesses buy from each other before anything reaches a shelf. It’s the PPI’s best hint at what’s coming.
The signals point in different directions. Processed intermediate goods rose 0.4% in October and are up 14.6% over 12 months. Unprocessed goods, the raw stage, fell 3.1%, led by a 10.3% drop in crude petroleum. Basic organic chemicals, a feedstock for plastics and many other products, rose 3.9%.
I wouldn’t read the crude drop as a sign the worst is over. Raw commodity prices swing hard in both directions. A 14.6% rise in processed goods is cost already built into components, and companies will try to pass it on.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has told CNBC that inflation is broad-based and not driven by oil prices or tariffs (I couldn’t confirm the date of that interview, so treat it as background rather than a reaction to this report). That doesn’t contradict the energy story. Energy lit the fuse with September’s 10.0% jump, and his point is about where inflation sits now: outside fuel, which is what October’s 0.5% rise in goods excluding food and energy and the 14.6% in processed goods show.
Will the Fed raise rates on December 9 after the PPI report?
Markets had already decided whether the Fed hikes. Before the release, CME FedWatch showed a 100% chance of a hike at the December 9 decision, according to CNBC and FXStreet. About 86-87% of that was on a 25 basis point move and about 13-14% on 50 bp (a basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point). The effective fed funds rate was 3.88% on November 12, per the New York Fed.
The open question is how big the hike will be. I couldn’t find a time-stamped FedWatch reading from after the PPI, so I won’t guess one. Crypto Briefing reported that the odds of a half-point hike fell after the cooler monthly print, but it gave no figure. Korea’s Financial News reported at 23:04 KST that markets are effectively fully pricing a 0.25 percentage point hike, with some talk of 0.5.
What are Fed officials and strategists saying?
Chris Zaccarelli, CIO of Northlight Asset Management, told CNBC the PPI is unlikely to change the Fed’s December approach because CPI was already outside its comfort zone. FWDBONDS’ Chris Rupkey told CNBC the report had “no silver lining.” AP’s Christopher Rugaber reported that many Fed officials have said they will almost certainly need to raise rates further, possibly more than once.
The job market isn’t pushing the Fed to wait. Unemployment was 4.1% in October, per BLS. My view: a 0.3% monthly print gives the half-point camp a little less to argue with. But with 6.5% annual producer inflation and a hot CPI three days earlier, the doves (officials who lean toward lower rates) have little to argue with either. Our December rate-hike odds piece tracks how the bets built up.
Treasury yields above 5.1%: what the PPI means for mortgages and savings
The bond market moved before the data and barely reacted after it. CNBC’s live blog showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.14%, up nearly 4 bp, at 9:05 a.m. ET (23:05 KST). CNBC’s Treasury story put the 2-year at 4.872% and the 30-year at 5.481%.
Investing.com Korea reported that the 2-year yield edged down after the release but was still on track for its biggest weekly rise since 2024. The 2-year follows expected Fed policy most closely, so a small dip there fits a market that is trimming its hike bets, not abandoning them.
How does the 10-year yield reach your mortgage and savings account?
US fixed mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year yield plus a spread, so a 10-year above 5.1% keeps home loans expensive. I don’t have a verified mortgage rate for today, so I won’t quote one. On the saving side, money market funds and high-yield savings accounts tend to follow the fed funds rate. A December hike would usually raise what cash earns, with a lag.
What does it mean for the dollar and the Korean won?
The dollar index was 103.19 around 6:29 a.m. ET (TipRanks) and about 103.18, near a 19-month high, around the release (FinanceFeeds). Yahoo Finance had it at 103.21 at 9:19 a.m. ET, up 1.18% in a month.
The won has held up better than the euro or the yen. USD/KRW was 1,336.41 on Yahoo Finance Friday, down 0.22% over a month, while EUR/USD fell 1.25% and USD/JPY rose 1.26%. No outlet had reported a PPI effect on Korean markets when I wrote this. KOSPI had already closed at 5,290.53, down 0.98%, hours before the 22:30 KST release.
How did stocks, gold and bitcoin react to the October PPI data?
Stock futures rose. CNBC’s live blog at 9:05 a.m. ET showed Dow futures up 226 points (0.4%), S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.1%. Yahoo Finance had S&P 500 futures at 7,645.00, up 0.39%, at 9:14 a.m. ET.
These are pre-market numbers. The regular session opens at 9:30 a.m. ET (23:30 KST), and no open or close was available when this was written.
Keep the scale in mind. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,592.4, down 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.97% over the past month (Yahoo Finance, November 12 close). A futures bounce after a slightly cooler print doesn’t change the fact that the market is pricing a hike.
| Market | Reading | Time (ET / KST) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.872% | Friday morning | CNBC |
| S&P 500 futures | 7,645.00 (+0.39%) | 9:14 a.m. / 23:14 | Yahoo Finance |
| Dow futures | +226 points (+0.4%) | 9:05 a.m. / 23:05 | CNBC |
| Bitcoin | $69,231.05 (about -3%) | Early Friday, before release | CNBC |
| Bitcoin | $69,254.05 | 9:19 a.m. / 23:19 | Yahoo Finance |
| Gold spot | $3,888.50 (+0.31%) | 8:30 a.m. / 22:30 | Kitco/FXStreet via FinanceFeeds |
| Dollar index | about 103.18 | Around release | FinanceFeeds |
Why is bitcoin below $70,000 today?
Bitcoin fell about 3% to $69,231.05 early Friday, its first drop below $70,000 since August, CNBC reported before the PPI came out. Yahoo Finance said it dipped to about $68,000 before recovering to about $69,265, and that it is down more than 10% in November.
Crypto Briefing reported at 9:01 a.m. ET that bitcoin had pushed back above $70,000 after the cooler print. Its own CoinGecko snapshot showed $69,161 at 7:54 a.m., though, and Yahoo Finance had $69,254.05 at 9:19 a.m. ET. Treat the bounce as reported, not confirmed.
The reason is straightforward. With the 10-year paying above 5% and the dollar near a 19-month high, an asset that pays no yield has a harder time attracting money, and traders go risk-off (they cut exposure to volatile assets). CoinGecko data show ether at $1,964.32, down 20.53% in 30 days, and the total crypto market at about $2.36 trillion, down 5.44% in 24 hours. Our bitcoin below $70,000 breakdown covers the leveraged side of the drop.
Did gold react to the PPI?
Only a little. Spot gold was $3,888.50, up $12.10 (0.31%), at 8:30 a.m. ET, after touching $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest since October 2025 (FinanceFeeds). Crypto Briefing reported that gold rose above $3,900 after the release. Gold futures are still down 6.81% over a month on Yahoo Finance, which shows that high yields weigh on metals as well as crypto.
What the October PPI report means for your money: a $10,000 example
The PPI measures what businesses get paid, not what you pay at the register, so don’t treat 6.5% as your personal inflation rate. It does show the cost pressure building up before prices reach you.
Say you run a small business that buys inputs. Inputs that cost $10,000 a year ago now cost about $10,650 at the final-demand level, or about $11,020 if they’re goods. Whether that reaches your customers depends on margins. Trade margins already fell 0.2% in October, which suggests sellers are absorbing some of the increase for now.
For a saver, the question is whether your yield keeps up with inflation. $10,000 in a 10-year Treasury at 5.14% (CNBC, 9:05 a.m. ET) earns about $514 a year before tax. That’s a decent return. And because there’s no official 12-month CPI rate this month, nobody can say exactly whether cash is beating consumer prices.
Crypto holders have had a rougher month. A $10,000 bitcoin position bought a month ago would be worth about $8,491, based on Yahoo Finance’s 15.09% one-month drop as of 9:19 a.m. ET Friday.
By the numbers
- At 6.5% annual final demand PPI (BLS, October 2026), what cost producers $10,000 a year ago now costs about $10,650.
- At 10.2% for final demand goods (BLS, October 2026), $10,000 of goods a year ago now costs about $11,020.
- At a 5.14% 10-year Treasury yield (CNBC, 9:05 a.m. ET, November 13, 2026), $10,000 earns about $514 a year before tax.
- After bitcoin’s 15.09% one-month drop (Yahoo Finance, November 13, 2026), a $10,000 position from a month ago is worth about $8,491.
How we calculated: 6.5% and 10.2% are BLS 12-month changes to October 2026 for final demand and final demand goods. 5.14% is the 10-year Treasury yield from CNBC at 9:05 a.m. ET and 15.09% is bitcoin’s one-month fall from Yahoo Finance at 9:19 a.m. ET, both on November 13, 2026.
What mistakes do people make reading a PPI report?
The most common one is treating producer prices as consumer prices. A 37.0% rise in final demand energy does not mean your utility bill rose 37%. The PPI shows cost pressure at the business level, and how much of it reaches you depends on margins and timing.
Mixing up the core measures comes next. If one headline says core rose 0.3% and another says 0.5%, both can be right. Check whether trade services were stripped out.
Watch out for any official 12-month CPI figure for October. BLS didn’t publish one, so any annual all-items CPI number you see for October is somebody’s own estimate.
Pre-market futures aren’t the final word. Dow futures up 226 points at 9:05 a.m. ET tells you how traders reacted in the first half hour, not how the day will end.
Finally, a falling crude price doesn’t mean prices are falling across the board. Crude dropped 10.3% at the raw stage while processed intermediate goods were still up 14.6% on the year.
FAQ
What time was the October 2026 PPI report released?
BLS released it on Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET (22:30 KST). It came out on schedule as release USDL 26-1687 and was not delayed.
Did the October PPI beat or miss expectations?
It came in slightly cooler than expected. The headline rose 0.3% against a 0.4% Dow Jones consensus, and the 12-month rate was 6.5% against a 6.6% forecast. The ex-food-and-energy measure rose 0.3%, which CNBC said was in line with expectations.
What’s the difference between PPI and CPI?
The PPI tracks prices that US producers receive, and the CPI tracks what consumers pay. In October, the CPI rose 0.4% (released November 10) and the PPI rose 0.3%. This time BLS published an official 12-month rate only for the PPI, because October 2025 CPI data were never collected.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in December 2026?
No one will know until the decision on December 9 at 2 p.m. ET. Before the PPI, CME FedWatch priced a hike at 100%, with about 86-87% on 25 bp and about 13-14% on 50 bp. I found no verified reading of the odds from after the release.
Does the PPI report affect mortgage rates?
Indirectly. The report moves Treasury yields, and fixed mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year yield, which stayed above 5% after the release. I didn’t find a verified mortgage rate for today.
When is the next PPI report?
November PPI comes out on Tuesday, December 15, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET (22:30 KST). It follows the Fed decision on December 9 and the November CPI on December 10.
What I’m watching next: December 9, 10 and 15
The FOMC meets December 8-9 and announces its decision on December 9 at 2 p.m. ET (4:00 a.m. KST on December 10). With a hike fully priced before today, the question is 25 or 50 bp.
The timing is awkward. November CPI comes out December 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET (22:30 KST), the morning after the Fed decides. That means the Fed sets policy based on October’s data, and the market gets its first check on that decision a day later. November PPI follows on December 15.
Before then, I’m watching whether the 10-year stays above 5% and whether bitcoin can close back above $70,000, since today’s reported bounce didn’t settle either one. I’m also watching whether truck freight’s 3.9% jump repeats in November, because rising transport costs push up prices across the economy.
This isn’t financial advice, so do your own research before you move any money.
Correction note: our October PPI preview used FRED’s seasonally adjusted index (159.780 in September, 157.662 in August, 150.245 a year earlier), and BLS has since revised September to +1.4%. The official 12-month rate uses unadjusted data, which gave 6.3% for September, not the 6.35% we computed (FRED PPIFIS; BLS).
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Sources bls.gov · kesq.com · cnbc.com · fxstreet.com · cryptobriefing.com · fnnews.com · clickorlando.com · finance.yahoo.com
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; you can lose all of your money.